Brookings, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

414
FXUS63 KFSD 230423
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1023 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Cold wind chills of -5 to -15 are expected again overnight
   into Monday morning.

-  Mild and breezy conditions during the early week could
   promote some locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly
   west of I-29.

-  Periods of light snow will return from Wednesday into
   Wednesday night with moderate probabilities (30%-60%) of a
   tenth of an inch of liquid accumulations according to
   ensemble guidance.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Short term forecast this evening remains on track, with just
minor adjustments to tonight`s temperatures, which are falling
a touch more quickly than expected. Further adjustments may be
needed and expect overnight lows to fall into the single digits
either side of zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Cold surface high pressure settles southward tonight which will
bring cold overnight lows in the single digits, a few locations
likely below zero. With some light winds, wind chill values will dip
to -5 to -15 at times. By Monday afternoon southerly return flow
will set up across most of the area, strongest near and west of the
James River. This will create some elevated fire danger in this
area. Otherwise temperatures will claw back to around normal in most
locations, climbing above normal in south central SD.

Tuesday should see the highest threat for high to very high fire
danger. Model soundings indicate the potential for wind gusts around
40 mph with humidity dropping to 25 to 40 percent in most locations
in the afternoon. If mixing remains more limited wind gusts will
likely be closer to 25 to 30 mph, but with little to no snow cover
the deeper mixing is expected.

A fast moving system Wednesday into Wednesday night continues to
bring increased confidence for an area of light to moderate snow.
Initially there could be a battle of low level dry air, but with a
fast moving upper level jet expected to drop southeast and colder
air settling in with decent frontal forcing, snow should develop.
Fairly decent agreement in the EC Ensemble and GEFS with 30-60
percent probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of liquid, with
the better chances near and north of I-90. Will need to keep an eye
on the frontal band as some of the models are bringing the max
forcing closer to I-90. Still a few days out.

Behind this system temperatures will rebound quickly back above
normal with 40s and 50s on Thursday and 50s and 60s on Friday. If
snow on Wednesday is more widespread this will eat into these milder
temperatures.

Some disagreement amongst the models for next weekend, but starting
to look like near to below normal temperatures with only very small
chance for light precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Patchy MVFR stratus appears to be dissipating late this evening
as it moves southeast, but could see some patchy and brief MVFR
ceilings. Generally think any MVFR obs will remain FEW or SCT
into early Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the
period with high clouds.

Winds continue to taper down tonight and shift direction.
Southerly winds prevail Monday into Monday night with gusts
around 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG